VoseTimeAR2 | Vose Software


See also: Time series in ModelRisk; Fitting in ModelRisk;Univariate Time Series Fit

VoseTimeAR2(Mu, Sigma, A1, A2, R0, R_1, Log Return, Initial Value)




Array function that models an autoregressive time series model of order 2.

  • Mu - mean log return;

  • Sigma - the constant coefficient of the variance equation;

  • A1 - first autoregressive parameter;

  • A2 - second autoregressive parameter;

  • R0 - log return at period 0;

  • R_1 - log return at period -1;

  • Log Return - an optional parameter. Function generates log returns if set to TRUE, or variable values if set to FALSE or omitted;

  • Initial Value - starting value (at time zero). The generated time series values will continue on from this value. Should only be provided if the Log Return parameter is set to FALSE or omitted.

As the ModelRisk Time Series functions typically take a lot of parameters, we recommend for these in particular to use the Time Series window.



 - a sample from a Normal(0,1)

- if   is the value of the variable at time t, then is the log return defined as

- log return mean

- conditional log return standard deviation

A1 -  1 lag autoregressive factor

A2 -  2 lags autoregressive factor

VoseFunctions for this time series

VoseTimeAR2 - generates an array of random values from this time series.

VoseTimeAR2Fit - generates an array of random values from this time series fitted to data.

VoseTimeAR2FitP - returns the parameters of this time series fitted to data.